Hal Rogers made dent in Rand Paul's margin

In last month’s GOP primary for the U.S. Senate, U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Somerset, dean of Kentucky’s Washington delegation, did more than just endorse Trey Grayson. The election results suggest that Rogers actually plowed the fertile R-soil in the 5th CD for Grayson — and made a difference, although not enough to overcome the Rand Paul wave. Of the 29 counties in Rogers’ district, Grayson won eight, while in the state’s other 91 counties, he won only three (Casey, Crittenden, Fulton).

Another telling statistic: while voter turnout statewide in the Republican primary for the Senate race was 33.7 percent, in the 5th CD, it was 42.1 percent. That was an anomaly. Mountain counties almost always trail the state in turnout. It highly suggests a strong get-out-the-vote effort by Rogers. Still, Rand beat Grayson on Rogers’ turf, 54.9 percent to 45.1 percent.

A total of 87,227 Republicans voted in the 5th CD, which was 24.8 percent of the statewide Republican vote (in the U.S. Senate race). This debunks the myth recently repeated more than once by the national media — that the 5th CD has half of the votes in a Kentucky GOP primary.

In fact, 5th CD is no longer the runaway leader in Republican votes. There were 207,193 registered Rs in Rogers’ district on May 18. The 4th CD — the Ohio River counties from Oldham to Boyd — is right on the heels of Rogers’ district with 195,236 registered Rs. The 4th CD is Grayson’s home region. Rand Paul won it in a landslide, 65.3 percent to 31.4 percent, winning each of the 24 counties. Turnout in the 4th CD was 32.4 percent, a little below the statewide average.

This brings to mind: Will Rogers really push hard for the election of Rand Paul in the general election? The intensity of Rogers’ efforts could make the difference in a close statewide race. The late Wendell Butler, the state agriculture commission and holder of other musical chairs of the day, once told me a story about the pioneers in the Conestoga wagons on the Oregon Trail: “When a wagon got stuck in the mud, and the men folks put their shoulders to it to push … just because you’re gruntin’ doesn’t mean you’re pushin’.” We shall see. Or, will we?