Reprinted from Kentucky Roll Call newsletter, Aug. 15, 2013.
In the world of commerce, the Latin term caveat emptor means
that a person who buys something is responsible for making sure that it is in
good condition, works properly, etc. In English it’s called “buyer beware,”
which applies equally to politics, especially advertising and polling. Consider
the following.
A July 23-24 poll by Republican pollster Wenzel Strategies put
McConnell ahead of Alison Lundergan Grimes, 48-40; a week later, the
nonpartisan Cook Political Report lowered its rating of a McConnell-Grimes
matchup from “lean Republican” to “toss up,” and tweeted an explanation: “given
that two polls show the race within the MOE and with Grimes ahead of McConnell
in both, it moves to the Toss Up column.”
What the tweet failed to mention is
that one of the two polls was conducted by Grimes’ own pollster, and the other
was conducted by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, for two
Democratic groups opposing McConnell.
It may surprise you that the respected
Cook Report lowered its rating based on partisan polling, which by definition
is done to con the public — by Ds and Rs — which the public accepts, when it’s
done with finesse.
Who to trust? The equally respected, nonpartisan Rothenberg
Political Report said, following Cook’s change, that it’s keeping the
McConnell-Grimes race, “Republican favored” — two notches from “toss up.”
